This study is aimed at a) projections of extreme temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns over the continental United States for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions and b) studies of effects of global changes in climate and emissions on U.S. air quality, focusing on fine particulate matter and ozone, projecting their future trends and quantifying key source attribution. For the first part, the downscaling uses the WRF model at a spatial resolution of 12 km with boundary conditions based on three different global climate models. For the second part, we use a dynamic prediction system that couples a global climate-chemical model with regional climate-air quality models, to determine individual and combined impacts of global climate and emissions changes on U.S. air quality from the present to 2050 under multiple scenarios. Blue Waters is essential to our project goals.
